Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 040245
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
Lowell's cloud pattern has lost a little organization since the 
last advisory, with the eye becoming clouded over at the top and 
the eyewall convective tops becoming warmer and less symmetric.  A 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level 
winds of 116 kt, and data from the onboard radar showed winds near 
125 kt at 0.5 km above the surface. The central pressure was near 
943 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is 
reduced to a possibly generous 115 kt. Earlier microwave data 
suggested the possibility that Lowell was undergoing an eyewall 
replacement cycle (ERC), and the aircraft flight-level winds showed 
an outer wind maxima in the northwestern semicircle. However, the 
only recent microwave overpass was a partial hit that did not help 
resolve whether the ERC was completing or not.

Lowell remains in a generally favorable environment of high 
oceanic heat content and light shear, and these conditions should 
persist during the next three days or so. This could allow some 
re-intensification after the ERC completes, and some of the 
intensity guidance shows strengthening between 24-48 h.  The new 
intensity forecast will do likewise and shows some modest 
strengthening during this time.  Starting at 72 h, Lowell is 
expected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear that should 
cause a substantial weakening. However, it is still forecast to be 
at or near major hurricane strength when making its closest 
approach to the Hawaiian Islands.
 
Lowell continues westward with an initial motion of 270/8 kt.  The 
ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days due to a 
developing mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian 
Islands, which is reflected in a forecast slower forward speed. 
After 48 h, the trough will likely create a break in the ridge 
that should cause Lowell to turn northward by 72 h and accelerate 
northward to north-northeastward after 72 h.  This track would 
bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost 
main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. The track 
guidance is more tightly clustered than it was 24 h ago, and the 
track guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory. 
Based on this, the new forecast track is similar to the previous 
track with only noise-level changes. However, the long-range track
details are still of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian
Islands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.
 
2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 13.5N 158.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.5N 159.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 13.6N 161.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 13.7N 162.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 14.1N 163.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 14.9N 163.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 16.2N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 20.4N 162.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 25.7N 162.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven