Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 030858
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
Lowell's satellite presentation has continued to weaken this 
evening, with some thinning of the eyewall convection, though it 
remains a formidable hurricane.  The latest Dvorak intensity 
estimates have a wide range, from 102-125 kt.  Based on continuity 
from the earlier higher NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the initial 
intensity is set to 125 kt. Lowell should remain in a low-shear, 
warm-water environment for at least the next few days.  While the 
new forecast shows no net changes, we expect fluctuations in 
intensity both up and down, dependent on nearly impossible to 
predict eyewall replacement cycles.  Vertical wind shear should 
increase some by the end of the forecast period, so a more steady 
weakening is shown by that time. 
 
The initial motion remains 270/9 kt.  Lowell is being steered by a 
low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this feature
the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3
days. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by
a complex developing mid- to upper-level trough currently seen in 
water vapor imagery near 32N 162W.  The feature is forecast to break 
the ridge down over the weekend, which should cause Lowell to turn 
sharply northward or north-northeastward.  However, the details of 
this turn are extremely difficult to diagnose at this time frame, 
and there is a wide range of possibilities.  The new NHC forecast is 
a bit left of the last one in a few days time, but ends up very 
close to the previous forecast at day 5.  Given the large spread, 
this is a low-confidence prediction for early next week.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts
are more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine
potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.
 
2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good
time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and
supply kit in place.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands 
during the next several days.  Depending on the exact track of the 
storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 13.3N 156.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 13.4N 157.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 13.5N 159.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 13.6N 160.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 13.7N 161.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 14.0N 162.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 14.5N 163.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 20.2N 162.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake