Tropical Depression Two-C

000
WTPA43 PHFO 211459
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands 
associated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective 
intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt, 
which correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on 
these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later 
today, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to 
investigate Two-C. 
 
The depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9 
kt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south 
of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more 
westward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the 
Central Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC 
track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one, 
and a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean.

The latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely 
strengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain 
generally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light, 
southwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle, 
significantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will 
help counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model 
intensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual 
weakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing 
vertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact 
the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading 
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into 
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in 
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are 
expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds 
are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher 
terrain on the Big Island. 

3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for 
portions of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi