Hurricane Nolo

000
WTPA42 PHFO 281453
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Increasing westerly wind shear is beginning to affect the structure 
of Nolo this morning. Recent infrared satellite imagery indicate a 
slight increase in asymmetric convection, with a decrease in 
convection to the north and east of the well-defined and very warm 
eye, and a larger area of convection to the south and west. Recent 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5/127 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates range from 121-133 kt. However, Nolo 
continues to have an annular structure, so the intensity has likely 
changed little since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is maintained at 135 kt for this advisory. 
 
Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, along the 
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered well north of the 
Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest then north is expected 
through the next 36-48 h as an intensifying upper-level low 
approaches the hurricane from the northwest. The track forecast 
becomes more complicated around midweek, as the progression and 
strength of the aforementioned upper-low will influence the motion 
of Nolo. A stronger low will likely be less progressive and pull 
Nolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low will 
result in a faster turn toward the west. The latest NHC forecast 
follows the latter scenario and calls for Nolo to turn back toward 
the west-northwest then west around midweek, with this general 
motion continuing into this weekend. This is consistent with the 
previous forecast advisory, and is similar to the HCCA and Google 
DeepMind solutions. 

The major hurricane has likely peaked in strength while over very 
warm waters and beneath favorable upper-level winds. However, 
increasing wind shear due to the aforementioned upper-level low 
should support gradual weakening by tonight, followed by more rapid 
weakening beyond 24 h through the middle of the week. In 4-5 days, 
the models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which 
could allow for some re-strengthening. The latest NHC forecast 
remains near the upper-end of the model intensity guidance, though 
has been lowered slightly at all forecast times. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 17.1N 162.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.3N 163.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 20.0N 163.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 22.8N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.1N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 23.7N 167.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 24.1N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams