Hurricane Nolo

595 
WTPA42 PHFO 290244
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Hurricane Nolo is being disrupted by strong vertical wind shear. The
GPM GMI microwave imagery received earlier today showed some tilt
between the low- and mid-level vortex, in addition to erosion in
portions of the southern eyewall. The satellite presentation on Nolo
this evening shows evidence of this disrupted inner core, with the
eye filling in on both visible and infrared imagery. Subjective
intensity estimates from PHFO and PGTW and the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS range from 110-127 kt. Based on the quick
deterioration of the cyclone on satellite imagery, the
intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.
 
The current forward motion of the hurricane is 315/11 kt, as the
cyclone continues to turn in response to an upper level trough
located to its northwest. A general northward motion is expected
through tomorrow. Thereafter, the upper level trough is expected to
merge with the hurricane. This will dramatically slow Nolo's forward
motion as it approaches the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea
National Monument. Later this week, a ridge is forecast to build
northwest of Nolo and begin to steer the system westward and nearly
parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the monument.
The track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, follows
the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile the many 
complicated steering features.
 
The new intensity forecast shows a faster pace of weakening than the
previous forecast, and is nudged toward the latest HCCA and GDM
guidance. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even more
through 72 hr, which could cause Nolo to weaken to tropical storm
strength during that time. Beyond 72 hr, the shear is forecast to
subside, and Nolo could re-intensify at a gradual pace due to dry
mid-level atmospheric conditions. The intensity forecast is within
the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney