Hurricane Lala

000
WTPA42 PHFO 192035
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026
 
Lala has weakened slightly as the eye of the hurricane does not 
appear to be as pronounced as before, and the cloud tops of the deep 
convection in the eyewall have warmed slightly as well. The most 
recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for 
Lala were both T5.5/102 kt. The objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS range from 99-113 kt. From a blend of this data and the 
latest satellite trends, the initial intensity has been lowered to 
105 kt for this advisory.
 
The cyclone has been moving toward the north-northwest at 315/8 kt. 
However, a more gradual turn to the north should be occuring soon as 
a ridge that was previously to the north of the hurricane begins to 
weaken due to the approach of a mid- to upper-level trough from the 
northern Pacific. The current NHC forecast track does not have many 
changes from the previous one until around 36 h, where the updated 
forecast lies slightly to the west of the previous one. Once the 
system turns to the northwest again, the new track and the old track 
become very similar again. The other change to the forecast was that 
the speed of Lala was increased slightly.
 
The current model and satellite trends are indicating that Lala will 
continue to weaken as it moves farther north and west away from the 
main Hawaiian Islands. The current NHC intensity forecast continues 
to maintain the system as a strong and powerful hurricane as it 
tracks toward and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument. The wind shear should start to increase more as the 
cyclone moves farther north as the favorable trough interaction 
decreases. In addition, past 60 h, the hurricane is expected to 
enter a drier environment, that should keep the weakening trend 
going. Given these factors, the current NHC intensity forecast shows 
a steady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies 
near the simple and corrected intensity consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 22.2N 171.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 24.6N 172.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 26.3N 172.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 29.8N 172.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 31.1N 173.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 33.1N 175.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 34.7N 177.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart