Hurricane Lala

000
WTPA42 PHFO 200242
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Major Hurricane Lala has degraded 
somewhat this afternoon, with the eye becoming obscured by high 
clouds and slightly warmer cloud top temperatures developing around 
the center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass indicated that Lala may 
have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, with ragged concentric 
eyes evident in the imagery. This process likely contributed to the 
recent weakening, as environmental conditions have not changed much 
since earlier today. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from JTWC and WFO HFO were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively, 
while objective estimates ranged from 90-104 kt. Given the degraded 
satellite presentation, suspected eyewall replacement, and the 
considerable spread among intensity estimates, the initial intensity 
is set at 100 kt for this advisory. 

Lala is moving northwestward at around 9 kt, steered by an 
upper-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaching from the northwest. A turn toward the north, accompanied 
by a modest increase in forward speed, is expected by tomorrow as 
the approaching trough weakens the ridge. This general motion is 
forecast through the next 48 h or so, followed by a turn back toward 
the northwest this weekend as ridging strengthens to the east. 
However, there remains considerable spread in the track model 
guidance regarding the timing of this northwestward turn. The latest 
NHC forecast is very close to the previous advisory, and remains 
near the middle of the track guidance envelope. 
 
The hurricane is currently moving over very warm sea surface 
temperatures around 28 C, and Lala is expected to remain a powerful 
hurricane as it tracks toward and beyond the Papahanaumokuakea 
Marine National Monument. After 24 h, increasing wind shear, 
gradually cooler waters, and strengthening upper-level winds are 
expected to promote slow weakening over the next several days. 
However, the wind field is also forecast to expand as Lala interacts 
with the approaching trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
keeps Lala above hurricane strength through 72 h and lies near the 
middle of the forecast intensity guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 22.8N 171.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 23.7N 172.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 25.2N 172.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 28.8N 171.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 30.4N 172.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 31.5N 173.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 33.3N 176.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 35.2N 178.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch