Tropical Storm Lala

961 
WTPA42 PHFO 180249
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026
 
The visible and infrared satellite presentation of Lala has improved 
over the past several hours, with convection becoming increasingly 
organized around the center of the storm. A recent AMSR-2 microwave 
pass revealed a well-defined core with a convective band wrapping 
completely around the center. However, some westerly shear is 
evident, with the mid-level center displaced slightly to the east 
of the low-level center. Objective Dvorak intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS span a wide range of 41-63 kt, though these estimates have 
steadily increased over the past several hours. Subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from JTWC and WFO HFO were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 
kt, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and the 
upward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 
60 kt for this advisory. 
 
The tropical storm is moving westward at around 10 kt, steered by a 
ridge of high pressure to the north, and this general motion is 
expected to continue through Tuesday. By midweek, an upper-level 
trough is forecast to approach the storm from the northwest, 
inducing a turn toward the northwest then north. This forecast 
brings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required 
for parts of that area on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very close to the previous forecast through 96 h, after which it has 
been accelerated, and remains near the middle of the track forecast 
consensus. 

Despite a relatively dry mid-level environment and moderate westerly 
wind shear, warm sea surface temperature and a well-established 
inner core are allowing for Lala to strengthen. All available model 
guidance support additional strengthening over the next 36 h, with 
the hurricane regional models and Google DeepMind (GDM) showing the 
most aggressive intensification. In addition, the ECMWF- and 
GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicate that rapid intensification is 
possible during this period. The forecast peak intensity has 
therefore been raised to 80 kt, which lies between the stronger 
regional hurricane models and GDM solution and the weaker 
statistical-dynamical model guidance. The longer-range intensity 
forecast remains more uncertain, as the global models suggest some 
potential for positive interaction with an upper-level trough later 
this week, followed by slow weakening as strong southwesterly shear 
develops. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 20.3N 165.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 20.4N 166.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 20.6N 168.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 21.3N 170.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 22.3N 171.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 23.5N 172.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 24.8N 172.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 27.7N 171.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 31.3N 170.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch