Tropical Storm Lala

612 
WTPA42 PHFO 170837
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026
 
Lala appears to be succumbing to the surrounding dry mid-level air, 
with convective coverage having diminished over the past several 
hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection persist near the 
center of the circulation, while the previously fragmented band 
across the northern and western portions of the circulation has 
weakened. The latest subjective Current Intensity estimates from HFO 
and JTWC range from 45 to 55 kt, which generally align with the 
latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In addition, a 0702 UTC 
METOP-B scatterometer pass provided useful information on Lala's 
overall structure and wind field and supports an intensity near 50 
kt. Based on a blend of these data and the satellite presentation, 
the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.
 
Lala is moving westward, or 270/11 kt, and this motion is expected
to continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical
ridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is
forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough
moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to slow and
gradually turn toward the northwest and then northward during the
middle to latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence remains
relatively high through the first half of the week, but decreases
thereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models and
considerable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory through
midweek, then follows a blend of the previous forecast, the
multi-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean
thereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty.
 
Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so as 
Lala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and 
south of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. 
Thereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a 
strengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane 
intensity by midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. Although 
the cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air and 
increasing westerly vertical wind shear could temper the amount of 
strengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. 
Nevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala 
strengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian 
Islands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward 
the middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the 
forecast period.
 
 
Key Messages:
1. Rain will continue to taper off across the island chain tonight 
into Monday morning, but localized areas of flooding and 
mudslides remain possible.

2. Continue to use caution in the wake of Lala, as dangerous hazards
remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If using a
generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from
doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 20.7N 162.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 20.6N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 20.5N 165.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 20.6N 167.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 20.9N 169.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 21.7N 170.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 22.6N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 24.5N 172.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 26.9N 172.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans