Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPA41 PHFO 270845
TCDCP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fausto 
earlier in the evening mission found a minimum central pressure of 
984 mb and peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 81 kt in the 
northeastern quadrant, supporting an intensity near 75 kt. However, 
a subsequent center fix closer to the advisory time indicated that 
the central pressure had risen to 988 mb. Combined with the 
continued degradation in Fausto's convective structure evident in 
satellite imagery, these data support lowering the initial intensity 
to 70 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. The overall track forecast 
philosophy remains unchanged, with a low- to mid-level subtropical 
ridge forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto during the next 
several days. This steering pattern should keep the hurricane moving 
generally west to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed 
through the middle of the week. As Fausto steadily weakens and 
becomes increasingly shallow, it should become more influenced by 
the low-level steering flow. This could result in subtle track 
deviations during the next couple of days. The NHC guidance is 
essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and lies near the 
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA).
 
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less 
favorable for Fausto during the next couple of days as the hurricane 
moves into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface 
temperatures. Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
forecast to steadily increase over the next few days. Simulated 
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective 
structure eroding over the next day or so. By the time Fausto moves 
north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening 
tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming increasingly 
displaced from the low-level center and the strongest winds confined 
to the northern side of the circulation. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains 
near the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the 
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current 
forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall 
will remain north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should 
continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across the state along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 20.4N 144.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 20.8N 146.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 21.5N 149.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 22.0N 151.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 22.5N 154.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 22.8N 156.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 23.3N 159.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 24.6N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce