Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPA41 PHFO 271448
TCDCP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026
 
Before departing, the last leg of the overnight Air Force 
Reconnaissance mission found that Fausto was more or less steady 
state, with the surface pressure in the 986-988 mb range and enough 
flight level winds to support maintaining the intensity of at least 
70 kt. Since the plane departed, the hurricane's satellite structure 
has also held steady, with an irregular central dense overcast near 
and to the north of the estimated center. While there is no lack of 
upper-level outflow, increasing mid-level vertical wind shear 
appears to be undercutting the outflow, with increasing tilt also 
noted on microwave imagery from a 12 UTC GPM pass. Satellite 
intensity estimates have not changed appreciably since the last 
aircraft mission, so the initial intensity remains 70 kt for this 
advisory. 

Fausto continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 285/12 kt. 
The track reasoning remains unchanged, with the hurricane being 
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge parked north of the system. 
This feature should keep Fausto on a steady west-northwest heading 
through the middle part of the week. Some wobbles in this general 
track could occur in the 24-60 h period as shear increases and 
Fausto's convective structure becomes increasingly asymmetric. 
Regardless, the track guidance has remained consistent over the last 
few cycles, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the prior 
one, once again blending the HFIP corrected consensus approach 
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). On this track, 
Fausto should pass north of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. 

The mid-level shear affecting Fausto this morning is an early sign 
that shear is beginning to disrupt its structure. Westerly vertical 
wind shear increases above 30 kt in 24-36 h, which is expected to 
cause the convection to become increasingly displaced northeast of 
the center. As Fausto passes north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is 
forecast to be a steadily weakening tropical storm. Simulated 
satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF, and HAFS models show the 
tropical cyclone losing organized convection between days 2 and 3, 
and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Fausto becoming a 
remnant low in 72 h, with dissipation shortly thereafter. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the prior one, near the middle to 
upper portion of the guidance.


Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the 
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of 
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 20.7N 146.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 21.2N 148.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 21.8N 150.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 22.3N 153.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 22.6N 155.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 22.9N 157.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 23.4N 160.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin