000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300915
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1026 mb high pressure
centered over NE Mexico supports strong to gale-force northerly
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, as confirmed by
a recent scatterometer satellite pass, and continuing through
early Fri morning. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt
through this morning, then level off to the range of 30 to 35 kt
through tonight, diminishing to fresh to strong speeds early on
Fri, then continuing into Fri night. Rough seas are expected with
these winds, peaking around 15 ft today. Seas generated from
this event will spread well south of the Tehuantepec area, with
seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N100W by late
tonight, at which time they will be merging with new swell
arriving from the SW. Seas in the Gulf will subside to less than
8 ft Fri afternoon. Looking ahead, the next significant gap wind
event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun,
possibly reaching gale-force Sun night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 10N100W to 07N120W and to 09N135W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N and east of 91W, and
also from 08N to 13N and between 94W and 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on the
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.
Aside for the Tehuantepec gap wind event, the Mexican offshore
waters are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that gentle to moderate NW
winds are evident in the Baja California Norte offshore waters
and the northern and central parts of the Gulf of California.
Seas in these waters are slight to moderate. Elsewhere, gentle or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a 1026 mb high pressure centered over NE
Mexico supports strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, and this is expected to continue
through early Fri morning. Expect N to NE winds in the 35 to 40
kt range, with seas around 15 ft this morning. Seas generated from
this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with
seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N100W on tonight.
Elsewhere, high pressure will remain well NW of the area through
the weekend to produce moderate or weaker winds across the Baja
offshore waters. A new N-NW swell will enter the Baja California
Norte waters tonight, building seas 6 to 9 ft across those
waters. Large NW swell will move into the area waters on Sun.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
nearshore and offshore waters of Central America and Colombia.
Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms.
Moderate S-SW winds and moderate seas are found south of the
monsoon trough, while moderate or weaker winds are noted north
of the trough.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas
generated by the Tehuantepec gale event will move into the far
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today through Fri.
Fresh to locally strong gap winds and seas building to 8 ft are
forecast for the Papagayo area early Fri through Sat as high
pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Cross equatorial
SW swell will propagate through the regional waters tonight
through Sat, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands starting Fri morning.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Latest satellite-derived wind data show that the remnants of
Sonia are producing fresh NE winds from 14N to 20N and between
128W and 138W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure centered just
north of our waters. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 20N and west of 120W.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and a cross
equatorial swell producing seas of 8-10 ft are present south of
12N and between 100W and 127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
the waters W of 120W into early next week. The remnant of Sonia
will continue moving westward over the next few days as winds and
seas gradually diminish. The N-NW swell producing rough seas
across the NE waters will be reinforced Fri into the weekend.
Meanwhile, cross equatorial SW swell bringing rough seas to the
waters S of 13N is expected to persist through Fri before
shifting E of 100W. This swell will merge with the rough seas
entering the eastern waters today into Fri propagating southward
from the strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Looking ahead,
large NW swell will enter the far NW waters late Fri into Sat,
with seas reaching 11 ft Sat afternoon.
$$
Delgado
