000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292102
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will
continue to surge southward along the eastern slope of the
Sierra Madre Orientales this afternoon, with the resultant
tightening pressure gradient expected to lead to gale-force
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, this
afternoon through early Fri morning. Winds are forecast to peak
around 40 kt tonight through Thu morning, then level off to the
range of 30 to 35 kt later during Thu and into Thu night,
diminishing to fresh to strong speeds early on Fri, then
continuing into Fri night. Rough seas are expected with these
winds, peaking at 14 to 15 ft Thu morning. Seas generated from
this event will spread well south of the Tehuantepec area, with
seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N100W by late
Thu night, at which time they will be merging with new swell
arriving from the SW. Seas in the Gulf will subside to less than
8 ft Fri afternoon. Looking ahead, the next significant gap wind
event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun,
possibly reaching gale-force Sun night.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 12N80W to 13N90W to low pres
near 11N105W 1013 mb to 07N118W to low pres near 10N129W 1013 mb.
The ITCZ extends from 09.5N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N
east of 91W, from 06.5N to 12.5N between 95W and 120W, and from
06N to 08.5N west of 138W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on an
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. Strong
northerly winds across Tehuantepec are expected to increase to
gale-force within the next few hours.
A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of America, as
strong high pressure across the western U.S. builds southward
behind it. This is leading to strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec extending southward to 14N, producing rough seas to
9 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed N winds to 28 kt
around midday. Winds and seas across and downwind of Tehuantepec
will increase steadily through Thu morning. The remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters are dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge centered well west of the area. Fresh to locally strong N-NW
winds were detected by recent satellite scatterometer data in the
northern Gulf of California, where seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh N-NW winds prevail elsewhere across the remainder
of the Gulf, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate N-NW winds
and seas of 5-6 ft in subsiding NW swell prevail off Baja
California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build southward along
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, in
the wake of a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of
America, and will support gale-force northerly gap winds and
rough seas across the Tehuantepec region late this afternoon
through early Fri morning. Expect N to NE winds in the 35 to 40
kt range, with seas building to around 15 ft tonight through Thu
morning. Seas generated from this event will spread well away
from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as
far south as 08N100W on Thu night. Elsewhere, high pressure will
remain well NW of the area through the weekend to produce
moderate or weaker winds across the Baja offshore waters. N-NW
swell currently dominating seas across the Baja California
offshore waters will continue to subside through Thu evening,
with new N-NW swell entering the Baja Norte waters Thu night,
building seas 6 to 9 ft across those waters. Large NW swell will
move into the area waters on Sun.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The southwesterly winds south of the monsoon trough continue to
slowly decrease across the area waters, as the broad wind field
of Hurricane Melissa begins to move away from the north-central
Caribbean. Currently, moderate SW to W winds and moderate seas
prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 13N, with
lighter wind speeds north of this feature. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed S-SW winds 15 to 20 kt in the Gulf of
Panama. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in S swell across the area
waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
affecting the near and offshore waters of western Panama and
Costa Rica, as well as the waters of Nicaragua and El Salvador.
Stronger winds and higher seas are likely in these waters.
For the forecast, the onshore westerly wind flow that is feeding
into the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa,
located over the waters between eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas,
will gradually diminish tonight through Thu. Meanwhile, rough
seas generated by the Tehuantepec gale event will move into the
far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu through Fri.
Fresh to locally strong gap winds and seas building to 8 ft are
forecast for the Papagayo area early Fri through Sat as high
pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Cross
equatorial SW swell will propagate through the regional waters
Thu night through Sat, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands starting Fri morning.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The 1012 mb remnant low of former Tropical Storm Sonia is located
near 15.5N128W, and continues to produce fresh to locally strong
winds and rough seas within 150 nm north of the center. The rest
of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a 1032
mb high pressure system located along 131W and offshore of the
Oregon coast. The associated ridge extends south and
southeastward, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 120W, as shown
by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 6-8 ft in mainly
N-NW swell across this area. Meanwhile, moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds and rough seas are noted south of 10N and
west of 100W. Cross-equatorial SW swell is beginning to reach
these waters, producing seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
the waters W of 120W through the weekend. The remnant low of
Sonia will continue moving westward over the next few days as
winds and seas gradually diminish. The N-NW swell producing rough
seas across the NE waters will be reinforced Fri into the
weekend. Meanwhile, cross equatorial SW swell will bring rough
seas to the waters S of 13N today through Fri before shifting E
of 100W. This swell will merge with the rough seas entering the
eastern waters Thu into Fri propagating southward from the strong
gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, large NW swell
will enter the far NW waters late Fri into Sat, with seas
reaching 10 ft Sat afternoon.
$$
Stripling
