ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The cyclone's satellite presentation, at least in visible imagery, has improved markedly through the day, and the low-level center had become apparent in a relatively cloud-free region (which has recently become obscured) surrounded by developing deep convection. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB (with similar objective numbers), so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with the cyclone now designated as Tropical Storm Beatriz. Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/10 kt, along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico. This ridge is forecast to weaken a bit during the next few days, and Beatriz is therefore expected to move northwestward for the next 4 days or so. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right, closer to the coast of Mexico, and some models (in particular the ECMWF and HCCA) bring the center inland in about 24-36 hours. The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the east as well, and now shows the center of Beatriz grazing the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in the next 24-48 hours. It is important to remember that Beatriz's oblique angle of approach to the southwestern coast of Mexico makes it difficult to know exactly where the center might come onshore, if at all, and therefore a larger-than-normal part of the coastline is at risk of some effects from the storm. Beatriz is now expected to rapidly intensify during the next 24 hours in an environment of low shear and abundant moisture, and over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius. Following the trend from this morning, the intensity guidance shows significant strengthening in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast has been raised to the high end of the guidance, closest to the HAFS-A and HCCA solutions at 24 hours. After that time, Beatriz's intensity will largely depend on if the center reaches land. Based on the official track forecast's proximity to land, intensification is shown through 36 hours, with weakening thereafter. Faster weakening is anticipated near the end of the forecast period due to drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, and global model guidance suggests that Beatriz could degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Friday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas Friday and Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:55 UTC