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Tropical Storm ELIDA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
Elida's remaining deep convection, located northeast of the center 
of circulation, continues to shrink in coverage and wane in 
intensity now that the cyclone is over waters of 23-24 degrees 
Celsius.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers are 55-65 kt from TAFB 
and SAB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are much lower.  
Elida has weakened to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 
set at 55 kt as a blend of the estimates.  With even colder waters 
ahead and a steady increase in southwesterly shear, Elida is 
expected to weaken quickly and likely lose its deep convection 
within the next 24 hours, making it a remnant low by this time 
tomorrow.  Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will 
dissipate in 2-3 days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  The cyclone has 
reached a break in the subtropical ridge, with a low- to mid-level 
trough extending southwest of California.  This pattern should 
cause Elida to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest 
during the next couple of days, and the track guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario.  The NHC track prediction is similar to 
the previous forecast during the first 24 hours and then is nudged 
slightly to the right after that time to lean closer to the GFS and 
ECMWF solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 23.5N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC