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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
Elida's remaining deep convection, located northeast of the center
of circulation, continues to shrink in coverage and wane in
intensity now that the cyclone is over waters of 23-24 degrees
Celsius. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers are 55-65 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are much lower.
Elida has weakened to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is
set at 55 kt as a blend of the estimates. With even colder waters
ahead and a steady increase in southwesterly shear, Elida is
expected to weaken quickly and likely lose its deep convection
within the next 24 hours, making it a remnant low by this time
tomorrow. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will
dissipate in 2-3 days.
Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. The cyclone has
reached a break in the subtropical ridge, with a low- to mid-level
trough extending southwest of California. This pattern should
cause Elida to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest
during the next couple of days, and the track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario. The NHC track prediction is similar to
the previous forecast during the first 24 hours and then is nudged
slightly to the right after that time to lean closer to the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 23.5N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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