ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018 Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on an overnight ASCAT pass. Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5. The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous forecast from days 2 through 5. Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state. Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:23:35 UTC