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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation
center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of
this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level
circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of
the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the
latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on
an overnight ASCAT pass.
Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.
The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning
visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that
Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current
track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with
little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows
the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only
subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous
forecast from days 2 through 5.
Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the
latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main
Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.
1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to
bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state.
Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP