ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 FABIAN MAY BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ALSO...THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. FABIAN IS NOW WELL INTO THE WESTERLIES AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IT SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12-24 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HR. DURING THIS TIME...IT SHOULD MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THANKS AGAIN TO OPC FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FORECAST POINTS AND INTENSITIES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 45.3N 46.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 48.7N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0000Z 54.6N 33.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 58.6N 31.6W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 60.8N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 60.0N 39.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 56.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 55.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC