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Hurricane FABIAN


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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003
 
FABIAN MAY BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  ALSO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
EXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70
KT.

FABIAN IS NOW WELL INTO THE WESTERLIES AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IT SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 12-24 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HR.  DURING
THIS TIME...IT SHOULD MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. 
THANKS AGAIN TO OPC FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FORECAST POINTS AND
INTENSITIES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 45.3N  46.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 48.7N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 54.6N  33.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 58.6N  31.6W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 60.8N  32.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 60.0N  39.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 56.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z 55.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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