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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook (Text)



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011959
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure
system located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Updated:  Satellite wind data indicate that the circulation
associated with the area of low pressure located about 700 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become better defined today.  The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has also increased in organization during the past few
hours.  Some additional development of this system is expected
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form while the low moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. By early next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A broad area of low pressure continues several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and only slow
development is expected today and Saturday.  After that time,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical
depression to form while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Berg

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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Jul-2016 19:59:57 UTC