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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook (Text)



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240552
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1450 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has remained poorly defined
over the past several hours. Shower activity is currently limited,
and development of this system is becoming less likely. The
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to
westward, and it could cross 140W longitude and into the Central
Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Another broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1500
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is
moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although shower activity
remains disorganized, some slow development of this system could
occur during the next day or so.  After that time, however, the
disturbance is expected to move over cooler water and into a region
of less favorable upper-level winds, which should inhibit
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-May-2015 05:52:35 UTC