000
ABNT20 KNHC 210514
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey,
is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea.  Some
development of this system is still possible before it reaches
the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The
disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early
Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for redevelopment.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend southeastward
toward Puerto Rico.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward
the northern Bahamas and southern Florida.  Conditions could become
a little more conducive for development later in the week when the
system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western
Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a surface trough that is interacting with a large
upper-level low over the central Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown