824 AXPZ20 KNHC 312030 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, to the north of 02N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 14N between 87W and 100W. Active convection is expected with this system through the weekend and early next week while it moves slowly westward, and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However, development of this system appears unlikely. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N90W to 09N100W. The ITCZ continues from 09N100W to 09N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 87W and 100W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 35N145W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over north central Mexico is supporting moderate northwesterly winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft range in SW swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail off the Baja California waters through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open waters. Seas will remain 8 to 9 ft in NW swell off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of Nicaragua to 94W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft in SW swell elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region and most of Nicaragua waters through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore waters the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 35N145W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Seas of 6-9 ft in N to NE swell prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft prevail. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft over the waters N of 25N between 118W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, little change is expected to the current conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active convection along the ITCZ will gradually shift westward and weaken through the weekend. $$ AL
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-May-2024 20:30:34 UTC