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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282126
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1924 UTC Wed Jun 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over northern Central America along 84W N of
07N. The wave is generating some shower and thunderstorm activity
over parts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is along 96W north of 07N moving west at 10 to 
15 kt, with minimal convection associated with the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W across western Panama and
Costa Rica to 11N90W to 10N100W to 12N110W to 12N112W. The ITCZ 
continues from 12N112W to 10N120W to 09N130W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 78W and 90W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 10N between 120W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Remnant low of Dora is centered near 20N114.5W with a central 
pressure of 1010 mb. Visible satellite imagery shows a well 
defined swirl of low clouds in association with this system. 
Winds of 20-25 kt are still noted within 60 nm of the center, 
with seas to 8 ft. It will continue to weaken tonight, then 
dissipate on Thursday.

Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the remaining waters 
west of Baja California, with light to gentle winds prevailing 
elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California. Latest 
scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds, 
forecast to persist through Thursday night. Seas are 3-5 ft in 
the northern Gulf of California, 1-3 ft in the central part of 
the Gulf and 3-4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft
are observed across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California, outside the influence of remnant low of Dora.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the
region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial SW swell continues to
propagate across the region with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas of 6-7
ft will dominate most of the forecast waters W of 80W late on 
Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the forecast waters. Altimeter data shows seas are 
generally 4-6 ft. Cross equatorial long period SW swell will 
continue to propagate into the southern waters mainly east of 
125W with seas building to 8-10 ft south of 08N into Thursday.
On Saturday, northerly swell will reach the north waters buiding
seas to 8 ft, mainly across the area north of 27N between 120W 
and 127W.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form 
late this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible by 
early next week while it moves west-northwestward.

$$
GR

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jun-2017 21:26:25 UTC