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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY 
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST 
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM 
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE 
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA 
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES 
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES 
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH 
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT 
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE 
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS 
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25 
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR 
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N 
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 
8 FT.

$$
GR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Mar-2015 22:02:01 UTC