Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 241505

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1346 UTC Mon Oct 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


Recently upgraded Hurricane Seymour is located near 15.2N 109.8W
at 1500 UTC, moving west- northwest or 290 deg at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds have increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Numerous strong convection was
noted within 60 NM of the center of Seymour while scattered
moderate to strong convection was noted elsewhere from 12N to 17N
between 107W and 111W. Conditions remain favorable for continued
intensification during the next few days as Seymour continues
moving W-NW to NW. Although the forecast track keeps Seymour
just outside of the Mexican offshore zones, fresh to strong winds
and seas in the 8-10 ft range are expected to affect the southern
part of zones PMZ023 and PMZ025 through late today, then PMZ015
tonight and Tue. For additional details on Seymour, refer to the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers

A gale warning will remain in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
during the next 48 hours, as strong northerly winds will persist
throughout the week across this region. By Thursday night into
early Friday morning, the aerial extent of the gale force winds
will increase as high pres builds across the western Gulf of
Mexico. At that time, seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N90W to 10N102W. It
resumes from low pres near 16.5N118W to low pres near 14N127W to
11N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm south and 60 nm north of the
monsoon trough between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough
between 98W and 101W.



See special features for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event. High pres of 1017 mb is centered near 25N124W and is
producing light anticyclonic winds across the waters W of the Baja
California Peninsula. Combined seas there are 4-6 ft across
southern portions of the peninsula, and 5 to 8 ft N of 27N due to
long period NW swell moving into the region. Seas here will
subside below 8 ft by Tuesday. The high pres will shift slightly
N-NE during the next 24 hours. This will result in moderate NW
winds across the offshore waters.

Inside the Gulf of California, mainly gentle southerly winds
prevail across the north half, while gentle N to NW winds prevail
across far southern portions. This general wind pattern will
persist through the day. By this evening, gentle to moderate NW
winds will dominate all the waters S of 27N extending SE to
between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands. On Tuesday as the
high center shifts farther N-NE, NW winds will spill down the
entire length of the Gulf of California.


Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo over
the next couple of days. Winds will peak near 20 kt during the
late night and early morning hours and diminish to near 15 kt
during the afternoon and early evening hours. 

Elsewhere gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted S of 06N,
while gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail N of 06N, with the
exception of moderate to fresh southerly winds from 05N to 07N E
of 80W. Combined seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, primarily in
long period SW swell which is dominating the offshore waters.
These marine conditions will persist over the few days.


A weak NE to SW ridge dominates most of the north waters N of
20N, and is producing mainly light and variable winds between
20N and 30N. Outside Seymour, two weak low pres centers of 1010
mb are noted along the monsoon trough near 16.5N118W and near
14N127W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NW swell are noted N of 15N between
117W and 133W. Seas over this area are forecast to subside to
less than 8 ft by Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front over the NW waters will reach from 30N132W to beyond
26N140W by Tue night. Winds will increase SW to 20- 25 kt within
90 nm ahead of the front with seas building to 8-10 ft across
most of the NW waters by Tue.


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Oct-2016 15:05:50 UTC