533 
AXPZ20 KNHC 272046
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low pres
near 07N93W to 08.5N108W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N108W to
07.5N120W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 100W and from
05N to 11N between 111W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian 
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over NW and central Mexico is supporting fresh to 
locally strong NW to N winds across the Pacific waters to the 
west of Baja California. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell. 
Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are prevalent across the Gulf 
of California with seas of 2 to 3 ft. Fresh NNW winds and 6 to 7
ft seas prevail west of 105W, to the SW of a line from Cabo 
Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds 
and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across 
the remainder of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between 
Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 
NE Pacific to sustain fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore 
waters, with locally strong winds this afternoon and evening. 
Winds across the Gulf of California are expected to be gentle to
moderate northwesterly over the southern and central Gulf through
Sun night. The high pressure will move east and weaken modestly 
Sun through the middle of next week, leading to weakening winds 
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 
the waters to the west of Baja California today, then become 
reinforced late in the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft 
across the outer waters of Baja Norte, and gradually shifting 
westward and increasing Sun night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered tstms prevail across the offshore waters between the 
Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and
Colombia. Winds across most of the area are moderate or weaker,
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will remain 
moderate or weaker for the next several days. Gentle to moderate
winds with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, a more significant S 
swell is expected across the region late in the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1031 mb center of high pressure near 34N142W extends a broad 
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The 
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 07N to 23N W of 120W.
Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 
25N and W of 125W, winds are moderate from the NE, with seas in 
the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S 
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell 
prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will continue from the ITCZ
to 22N, and west of 122W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to
locally strong. This will maintain seas of 6 to 10 ft. Moderate 
N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 22N 
through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja California 
Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and gradually 
spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast across the 
remainder of the waters through early next week.

$$
Hagen