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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290250
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.6N 131.0W AT 0300 UTC 
AUG 29...OR 875 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310 
DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. THE BROAD LOW 
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF MARIE REMAINS WELL DEFINED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. THE 
WEAKENING TREND OF MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NW...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-
TROPICAL TONIGHT. A CONTINUED NW MOTION AND GRADUAL  SLOWING OF 
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARIE IS 
FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS LATE SAT MORNING. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON 
IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE 
CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING HIGH SURF...VERY STRONG 
RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15.5N92W TO 09N101W TO 
12N116W... THEN RESUMES FROM 16N123W TO 10.5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W 
AND 83W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W...AND FROM 06N TO 
11N BETWEEN 96.5W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S TO SE OF TROUGH W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...    

W OF 110W...FADING REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL 
HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE...AND DOMINATE THESE 
AREA WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO 
THE NW WITH TIME. 

1023 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
40N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF THE 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 24N117W. PRONOUNCED 
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WIND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. THESE WINDS WILL 
SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 02:50:46 UTC