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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 135.3W OR ABOUT 1330 
MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 1500 UTC. JIMENA IS MOVING W OR 280 
DEG AT 14 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE W PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL 
RIDGE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT AND JIMENA IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. 

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 20 
NM DIAMETER EYE...WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM 
OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM NE AND 210 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. JIMENA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA 12 FT OR 
GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 480 NM N AND 270 NM S OF THE CENTER. THE 
SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS IS NEARLY CONCENTRIC WITH THE 
RADIUS OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 
KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10.5N109W AND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY N OF DUE W AT ABOUT 5 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE CENTER WITH INTERMITTENT BANDING. THE GRADIENT IS 
THE TIGHTEST E OF THE LOW ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL 
FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH 
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
FORMATION AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 13N111W ON 
TUE AND NEAR 16N113W ON WED.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA 
AT 10N86W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AT 10N89W WITH 
THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING SW TO 09N96W...THEN TURNS NW TO 
12N105W...THEN SW THROUGH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N109W... 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUING W TO 11N124W WHERE IT 
LOSES IDENTITY IS THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
270 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE EMBEDDED LOW AT 10N89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N78W TO 07N99W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
09N113W TO 07N126W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF JIMENA 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N128W TO 06N140W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF 13.5N98W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT 
IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE 
TO ALONG 23N WHERE THE TRADES GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH CYCLONE JIMENA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE 
THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W 
ON TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-
20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS N OF 27N E OF 123W TO THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE 
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MIDDAY WED.   

$$
NELSON

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 15:53:29 UTC