000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern and southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of
this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of
Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 
the next two days, and a high chance within the next seven days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been analyzed along 86.5W, from the Gulf of 
Honduras in the Caribbean Sea southward to 05N in the eastern 
Pacific. This wave is moving toward the west around 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 04N to 10N between 78W and 95W.

A tropical wave is located along 103W, from 09N to 17N, moving
west around 15 kt. An area of low pressure centered near 
13N103W is noted where the wave axis intersects the monsoon 
trough. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on this 
feature. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 
17N between 100W and 110W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N106W to 08N124W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 07N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 08N west 
of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on 
potential tropical development off the coast of southern Mexico 
this weekend or early next week. 

The remnant low of Flossie is moving through the Baja California
Sur waters, centered around 350 NM west of Cabo San Lucas. 
Recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh winds prevail to
the east, north and west of the center, with a localized area of
strong winds occurring in the northeast quadrant. Seas of 8 to 9
ft are occurring near this system. Elsewhere, troughing has been
analyzed along the Baja California Peninsula, and high pressure 
prevails over western Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting fresh S to SE winds in the northern Gulf 
of California, as seen on scatterometer data. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are occurring 
off the coast of southern Mexico, near the tropical wave and 
associated low pressure system. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Flossie will move 
northwestward through the Baja California waters today, producing
mainly fresh winds and rough seas south of Punta Eugenia through
tonight, before winds and seas diminish by early Sat. In the 
Gulf of California, fresh S to SE winds will diminish tonight. 
Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong winds and rough seas will
occur off the coast of southern Mexico this weekend as a 
tropical wave, and associated low pressure, moves generally west-
northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. Gradual development 
of this system is expected during the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early 
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off 
the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical 
formation within the next two days, and a high chance within the 
next seven days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo, 
supported by low pressure over northern Colombia. Gentle to 
locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. To the south, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds 
were noted on recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas of 5 to 
7 ft in S to SW swell prevail over the waters offshore of Central
and South America. 

For the forecast, moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo this weekend as low pressure prevails over the south- 
central Caribbean. Winds will strengthen early next week as the 
pressure gradient increases between the aforementioned low and 
building high pressure over central Mexico. Otherwise, south of 
the monsoon trough, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds 
are expected. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over 
the regional waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends over the eastern Pacific waters north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered 
north of the area near 32N138W. Moderate NE winds were noted in 
this region on recent scatterometer data. Residual rough seas in 
mixed N and E swell, in part induced by swells from the remnant 
low of Flossie, are noted over the north-central waters north of 
25N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere, south of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ, a southern hemisphere swell is leading to rough seas 
south of 05N between 100W and 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds prevail in this area. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ tonight into early next week as 
high pressure builds to the north. Rough seas in the north- 
central waters, north of 25N between 120W and 130W, will subside 
this evening. South of the monsoon trough, rough seas in S to SW 
swell will slowly subside by Sat morning. Looking ahead, fresh to
occasionally strong winds and rough seas will occur off the 
coast of southern Mexico this weekend as a tropical wave, and 
associated low pressure, moves generally west-northwestward well
off the coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is 
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. 
There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 
two days, and a high chance within the next seven days.

$$
ADAMS