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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N131W TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS FROM 30N128W 
TO 16N139W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N144W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. WHILE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AND HELP FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS BY MON. 
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS. THIS 
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH WINDS TO 25 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT 
AND WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. WITH 
THE TIMING OF THE WINDS COINCIDING WITH PEAK DRAINAGE 
FLOW...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KT MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT.  

$$
AL


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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Dec-2014 21:06:17 UTC