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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough begins over Colombia near 08N77W, extends 
across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N92W, then dips west-southwest 
to 08N109W, where the ITCZ continues west-southwest to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 
60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 118W and 139W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 
90W and 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient will maintain moderate NW breezes west 
of Baja California overnight, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat Tuesday, with fresh 
nw flow forecast across the waters north of 25N within 90 nm of 
the Baja Peninsula through Friday, with combined seas of 4-6 ft.

Gulf of California: Mainly light and variable winds are expected 
through Thursday, with seas of 1-3 ft. Model guidance suggests a 
fresh to locally strong WSW winds near 30N Thursday to Saturday.

South of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak surface 
low may develop within the monsoon trough tonight near 11N95W, 
then drift westward and gradually dissipate through Wednesday 
night. Expect moderate cyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas through 
early Wednesday, with winds diminishing Wednesday and Thursday 
as the low degenerates into a N-S orientated trough.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Expect light and variable flow north of 09N to gradually become 
a moderate SE to S breeze east of the surface low expected to 
develop near 11N95W, with seas building 4-6 ft. Winds diminish 
on Tuesday with light and variable flow expected Wednesday and 
Thursday and seas of 3 to 6 ft. 

Moderate southerly winds are expected S of 09N through Thursday 
night, with combined seas gradually subsiding through Friday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge from 32N140W to near 11N101W will reposition itself from 
32N142W to 11N120W by mid week as a weak trough sweeps eastward 
across the waters north of 30N Tuesday and Wednesday accompanied 
by long period NW swell that will build seas to 6-8 ft along 32N 
between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere north of the convergence zone 
moderate trade winds are expected with combined seas of 4-6 ft. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Monday, 22-May-2017 21:26:06 UTC