| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1405 UTC Sun Dec 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 05.5N96W to 10N123W to 10N140W. There is no
significant convection currently associated with the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A deep layered low pressure system is 
crossing the northern Gulf of California and is currently 
centered near the Arizona/Sonora border just SW of Tucson. This 
system was reflected by a 1004 mb low centered at the surface 
near 31N113W at 12 UTC. A cold front extends SSW across the Gulf 
of California and Baja California Norte to 28N114W then continues
SW to 24N117W. The low has been intense enough to produce a line
of thunderstorms earlier this morning along and ahead of the 
front north of 27N. The convection has since moved eastward into 
Arizona and NW Sonora. The front has begun to weaken and will 
continue moving SE and finally dissipate over the S central Gulf 
by Mon morning. S to SW winds have developed over the northern 
and central Gulf ahead of the front to 111W. Strong NW winds will
affect the Gulf north of 30N as the surface low lifts NE toward 
Arizona and weakens. While the fetch across the northern Gulf 
will be too limited to develop large seas, mariners should 
consider the possibility of strong gusty winds funneling through 
low lying areas of Baja California Norte today. Winds in this 
area will diminish through early next week after the low fills 
and the front dissipates.

Across the Pacific offshore waters, NW winds have strengthened 
behind the front to 20-25 kt, and seas have built to around 16 
ft near 30N122W. Seas are peaking and will start to subside, but 
Seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover most of the waters beyond 60 nm of 
the Baja coast through Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist along the coast of
Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
have subsided for the time being, but nocturnal drainage winds 
will pulse to strong speeds each night through Thu morning. A
strong cold front blasting into the Gulf of Mexico should usher
in the next gap wind event beginning on Sat night. Gale force
winds will be possible.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds are expected to continue across the Papagayo 
region for the the next few days, but gradually taper off as high
pressure over the western Atlc shifts eastward. Fresh N winds 
will funnel across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then decrease to
moderate speeds Mon night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters N of 24N, with 
seas 9 to 16 ft in NW to N swell. Seas associated with this swell
are peaking and will start to subside this afternoon. Moderate 
to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters 
north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 125W. High pressure across 
the NE Pacific will dominate the regional waters for the next few
days with little change wind speeds. Seas across much of the 
region west of 110W will subside below 8 ft during the next 
couple of days as long period NW swell continue to decay. Low 
pressure developing west of 30N140W will cause seas near the NW 
corner of the discussion area to build above 8 ft by Fri morning.

$$
CAM

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Dec-2017 16:05:32 UTC