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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave was analyzed just east of the area from 03N-13N
along 76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was within
120 nm of the coast of Panama and Colombia ahead of the tropical
wave. This wave is moving west around 20 kt. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis was analyzed from 9N78W to 09N87W to
08N95W to 11N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N123W to
07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection was within 150 nm southeast quadrant, 240 nm
southwest quadrant, and between 150 nm and 300 nm northwest
quadrant of low pressure. Isolated moderate convection was noted
within 150 nm north of the axis west of 131W and within 150 nm
south of the axis between 127W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...   

1028 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near
45N141W extends a ridge southeastward into the forecast area
through 32N139W to 1013 mb high pressure near 13N94W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across
Baja California is producing moderate to fresh north-northwest
winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough
is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally
south of 20N and west of 118W. A 1009 mb area of low pressure
currently present along the monsoon trough is forecast to
continue west along the monsoon trough before dissipating
midweek. Trade winds near this low center may occasionally
increase to locally strong across the northern portion of the
lows, especially as convection flares up. Scattered moderate
with isolated strong convection was within 150 nm southeast
quadrant, 240 nm southwest quadrant, and between 150 nm and 300
nm northwest quadrant of the low pressure system. Seas across
this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-7 ft range through
Thursday.

Weak low pressure over the far northern Gulf of California is
dissipating this morning. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail
over the far northern Gulf of california while variable light to
gentle winds are prevail across the southern Gulf of California.
Weak low pressure is expected to appear again during the evening
hours tonight and Wednesday night only to diminish in the late
morning hours. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten
between this low and the building subtropical ridge to the
southwest on Wednesday night. A fresh to strong southwest breeze
is forecast from 29.5N-31N Wednesday evening through early
Thursday morning with seas building to 6 ft.

$$
Schauer

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-May-2016 15:32:24 UTC