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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1545 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 08N79W to 09N86W to low pres
near 11N105W 1011 MB to 12N117W to low pres near 08N125.5W 1011
MB. ITCZ axis extends from 08N125.5W to 06N131W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 128W
and 130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 NM
of trough axis between 122W and 128W, and within 180 NM s of
trough axis between 112W and 117W. Similar convective activity is
noted from 09N to 13N between 91W and 95W...within 120 NM s of the
trough axis between 112W and 117W...within 60 NM of the trough
axis between 103W and 109W...and from 09N TO 14N between 104W and
109W.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave with axis along 90W north of 09N is approximated
to be moving westward at 15 kt. Only isolated moderate convection
is occurring within 120 NM east of the wave from 09N to 12N. The
wave is located just to the east of a rather vigorous upper trough
axis that extends from southeastern Mexico southeast to 09N93W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection as described
above under ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH is ahead of the wave. The wave
is likely to help induce a broad area of low pressure south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next 48 hours.

...DISCUSSION...  

N of 15N E of 120W:

A north-northwest to south-southeast oriented trough will remain
over the Baja California peninsula this week. Light to gentle S to
SW winds will prevail over the Gulf waters through Sat.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds will continue along the
California coast through Fri. Large north swell generated by
these winds are expected to propagate southward mainly to the W of
120W.

Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during
the nighttime hours. N to NE winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas 
to 9 ft are currently occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds
will again pulse to 20 to 30 kt tonight with seas building to 
10 ft before diminishing by early on Wednesday afternoon. A 
weaker event of 20-25 kt winds is expected late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with seas to 8 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of
the monsoon trough.

Gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are affecting the Gulf
of Papagayo. A repeat occurrence is expected tonight before
diminishing to 15 to 20 kt Wednesday afternoon. Seas are expected
to be 8 ft in and near the Gulf.

More long period SW swell are crossing the equator. The swell are
spreading northeastward and will cause seas S of 11N and W of 93W
to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue evening. Seas in this area
will begin to subside on Wed and fall below 8 ft on Fri.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge resides over the EPAC waters to the N of 12N, where
Gentle to moderate NE winds are observed. Otherwise, moderate NE
trades are seen N of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are
found S of the monsoon trough. This general pattern for winds is
expected to persist for at least the next several days.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds along the California coast will
generate large N swell. Seas N of about 22N and W of 130W will build
to a maximum height of 9 ft Wednesday...then spread southwest to
near 20N between 130W and 139W and to north of 28N between 120W
and 134W by early on Thursday. The winds along the coast of
California are forecast to diminish beginning on Saturday
allowing seas to slowly subside.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have caused seas to build
to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas will begin to
subside tonight.

$$
AGUIRRE

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2016 16:05:58 UTC