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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...          

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC 
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE 
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER 
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS 
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT 
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND 
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W 
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO 
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...    

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240 
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO 
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W 
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN... 
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER 
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON. 

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING 
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE 
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO 
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST 
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED 
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW 
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL 
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND 
120W.

$$
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Aug-2014 02:47:32 UTC