639 
AXPZ20 KNHC 101603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75.5W to 12N97W to 09N109W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N109W to 05N129W to beyond 08.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 
to 12.5N between 81W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N W of 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NE Pacific ridge is centered well NW of the area and extends
southward into the tropical Pacific, yielding a weak pressure
gradient across the regional waters. Gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, and  
extend S to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico as well as inside the 
Gulf of California. Recent satellite altimeter data shows seas 
are in the 6-8 ft range offshore Baja California, dominated by NW
swell. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in 
the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas of
1-3 ft are noted, except to 4 ft in SW swell across the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will 
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of 
next week. Northwest swell moving through the regional waters 
will maintain seas to 8 ft through early Sat before gradually 
subsiding to 6 ft or less through early next week. Gentle to 
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
across the open offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of 
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak low pressure prevails across the northeastern Tropical 
Pacific and the adjacent western Caribbean today. This pattern is
producing gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds south of the 
monsoon trough, roughly along 10N-11N, with light to gentle winds
N of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell is producing seas in 
the 5-6 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 
3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the next several days. Expect gentle to moderate 
S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough through the middle of 
next week. New southerly swell moving into the regional waters
today will build seas to 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands 
through Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with 
moderate seas of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1031 mb near 45N137W
southward into the tropical NE Pacific waters. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the 
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the 
6-8 ft range in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are 
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 
ft range, except to 8 ft N of 24N between 115W and 122W. Gentle 
to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, 
with seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well N of the region will drift 
westward and weaken through Sun. This will maintain gentle to 
moderate trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, in the trade wind zone 
N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W through Sun, before seas 
subside slightly through early next week. NW swell, producing seas
to 8 ft, dominates the waters N of 24N and E of 125W today, and 
will gradually subside to less than 8 ft early Sat, then to 6 ft 
or less through early next week.

$$
Stripling