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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A LOW NEAR 11N119W IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
THAT EXTENDS TO 17N118W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W TO 122W. CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IS 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 
CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH ARE GENERATING A 
WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W AND 
124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE 
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N101W TO 17N99W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS 
ANCHORED INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN TROUGH AXIS AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W 
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N90W 8N102W 9N113W 
TO1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W 
TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 
85W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...AND 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 113W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 
11N107W TO 16N116W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 138W 
AND 141W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 
25N124W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N124W THROUGH THE 
LOW TO 23N124W. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SEAS REMAIN TO 
8 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG 
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND BENEATH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 30N125W ALONG 23N123W TO 17N126W. DRY STABLE AIR IS W OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR...NO ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK 
INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N131W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW PRES AND A SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER THE SEAS REMAIN TO 8 
FT NEAR THIS LOW AND WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THEN 
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Jul-2014 15:26:26 UTC