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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N111W THEN RESUMES    
FROM 06N115W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W 
OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N113W TO 26N126W TO 26N140W. 
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH 
WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 90-120 NM SE OF 
THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO 
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA 
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS 
WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-11 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP 
SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON EVENING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N139W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 30N129W TO 
17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE 
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE 
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N111W TO 04N113W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. THE 
WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO 06N128W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 
122W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. 
THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS 
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH 
SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT 
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Apr-2015 02:32:54 UTC