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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1005 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY SUNRISE ON MON. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM
PULSING STRONG WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND ALSO MERGING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN VERY CONFUSED SEAS AWAY
FROM THE SOURCE REGIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
RETURN BY TUE MORNING...LIKELY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TUE
NIGHT THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THU IF NOT LONGER. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 16N125W TO 07N130W WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PRESENT FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35-40 KT FROM
10N TO 15N W OF THE TROUGH TO 134W...WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 11-18 FT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING BY THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 04N110W TO 05N123W TO
01N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 101W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES AT 1034 MB IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR
36N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO JUST N OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS TO THE SE TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
LOWER PRES ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ WHERE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
ALSO PRESENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE AREA IN THE W
CENTRAL WATERS. LARGE NW SWELLS ALSO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
CONTRACT IN COVERAGE AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. NW SWELL WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT ATTACHED TO PACIFIC NW LOW
PRES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED LARGE NW SWELLS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL WITH BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS NW MEXICO AND RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY MON
ALLOWING FOR FLOW TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MON EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY MON
EVENING AS A RESULT.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...1022 MB HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN
GUATEMALA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE E-SE ALONG EASTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND BROAD LOWER
PRES SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FLOW IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO UP TO 12 FT LATER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...
HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THEREAFTER ALLOWING FOR
ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE
STRONGEST CONDITIONS JUST S OF THE THE AZUERO PENINSULA. SEAS
ARE UP TO 7-10 FT. THE SUPPORTING PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ON
MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING.

$$
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Feb-2016 09:05:34 UTC