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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO 
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN 
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
134W-137W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW 
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS 
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY 
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ 
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF 
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY 
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE 
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW 
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW 
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE 
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 
8 FT OR GREATER. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S 
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A 
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST 
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD 
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED 
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT 
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A 
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING. 

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Nov-2014 03:35:42 UTC