000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160243
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N, with axis near 102W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section
below.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 16N with axis near 112W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 08N to 16N between 109W and 116W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 15N with axis near 131W, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the 
section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N93W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical wave along 112W, 
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N and E of 105W,
and from 06N to 13N and W of 119W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail along the northern half of the  
Gulf of California due to the pressure gradient between a surface
trough bordering the E Baja California coast and high pressure
in the surroundings. Slight to moderate seas are along the Gulf.
Moderate NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
with moderate seas in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
prevail along with moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri as high pressure 
builds over central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong
speeds Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens further, resulting in rough seas. Farther south, 
moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo,
will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through midweek, 
then returning this weekend. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will
continue over the northern Gulf of California through Wed as a 
low pressure approaches from the northwest. Moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere, except slight in the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas 
in SW swell prevail over the Central and South American waters, 
except rough south of the Equator and offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high 
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building 
seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh E winds will extend 
through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
through midweek, and then again this weekend. Moderate to fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama midweek. A SW swell will 
continue to propagate through the South American waters through 
the middle of this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1033 mb high pressure well northwest of the discussion waters 
near 46N144W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt 
from 10N to 20N west of 110W, and from 10N to 15N east of 105W. 
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 90W, and moderate east of 90W. 
Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters
south of 04N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will 
continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as 
ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the
southern waters promoting rough seas south of 08N, through mid- 
week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell 
will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek, 
decaying by the end of the week.

$$
ERA