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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the 
equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure continues this afternoon from offshore 
of California SE to near 12N109W. This ridge has weakened 
slightly throughout the day, producing a mild decrease in the 
prevailing NW to N winds across the Baja California waters. 
Winds has diminishing to around 20 kt this afternoon, with seas 
subsiding slightly to 7-10 ft. Winds inside the Gulf of 
California are currently NWly at 15-20 kt. 

Winds will slowly diminish further off the Baja California 
peninsula through Saturday as the high pressure shifts slowly 
southward to along 31N, while seas subside below 8 ft tonight as 
the winds diminish. Strong winds are anticipated across the 
southern half of the Gulf of California this evening through 
Saturday, where seas will build 5-7 ft, and reach 8 ft across 
the southwest entrance to the Gulf on Saturday afternoon. Weak 
high pressure will remain over the area into early next week, 
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across 
these waters. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the 
region Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a slight increase in 
winds.

High pressure building over the northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
will allow a brief pulse of fresh to strong gap winds into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly onshore winds will prevail through 
Saturday. Winds will freshen and shift offshore along the 
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama Saturday night through Sunday
night as fresh easterly trade winds return to the western 
Caribbean. The Papagayo gap winds may become strong Monday night
as trade winds increase across the southwest Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Seas continue to subside across the outer waters as northwest 
swell decays below 8 ft across the region. Moderate NE to E 
winds cover the trad wind belt south of a 1025 mb high pressure 
area centered north of the region. Southerly winds have begun to 
increase today in the northwest corner of the discussion area, 
ahead of a cold front expected to pass east of 140W tonight. 
Another pulse of northwest swell reaching 8 to 10 ft will 
accompany the front, although most wave guidance indicates this 
northwest swell above 8 ft will remain north of 25N and west of 
135W through Sunday as the swell subsides. Looking ahead, a 
reinforcing frontal boundary will move west of 140W early next 
week, bringing another push of northwest swell into the 
northwest portions of the discussion area. Building high 
pressure north of the area behind this boundary will allow fresh 
trade winds deeper into the tropics from 05N to 10N west of 125W 
with seas reaching 8 ft in a mix of local trade wind related 
wave and longer period northwest swell.

$$
Stripling


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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Feb-2017 21:21:38 UTC