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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO 
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION     
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N 
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...    

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO 
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT 
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE 
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A 
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT 
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN 
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO 
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE   
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS  
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO   
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO 
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE 
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS 
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE 
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Apr-2015 02:33:50 UTC