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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 UTC Tue Jun 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to low pres near 08N92W
1009 MB to low pres near 10N106W 1010 MB to 12N116W to low pres
near 09N126W 1010 MB to 09N136W. The ITCZ continues from 09N136W
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present within 180 NM of the monsoon trough axis between 89W
and 132W.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave with an axis reaching from 09N88W to 15N90W is
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring along the coasts of El Salvador and
Guatemala from 12N to 14N between 87W and 93W.

...DISCUSSION...  

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE-oriented trough will remain over the Baja California
peninsula this week. Light to gentle S to SW winds will prevail
over the Gulf waters through Sat.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds will continue along the
California coast through Fri. Large swell generated by these
winds are expected to propagate southward mainly to the W of 120W.
Seas N of 25N and W of 118W will build to above 8 ft Thu night.
The winds will decrease on Sat and Sun, allowing seas to subside
below 8 ft on Sun.

Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during
the nighttime hours. N to NE winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of
8 to 10 ft are currently occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
will recur again tonight. A final weaker event is expected on Wed
night.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of
the monsoon trough.

Gap winds of 20 to 25 kt from the NE to E are affecting the Gulf
of Papagayo. A repeat occurrence is expected tonight before
calmer conditions return. Seas will reach 8 ft this morning and
again tomorrow morning.

More long period SW swell are crossing the equator. The swell
are spreading northeastward and will cause seas S of 11N and W of
93W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue evening. Seas in this
area will begin to subside on Wed and fall below 8 ft on Fri.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge resides over the EPAC waters to the N of 12N, where
Gentle to moderate NE winds are observed. Otherwise, moderate NE
trades are seen N of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are
found S of the monsoon trough. This general pattern for winds is
expected to persist for at least the next several days.

Strong to gale force NW to N winds along the California coast will
generate large N swell. The area affected by the swell will
expand southwestward through the waters N of 20N tonight through
Thu night as seas build to between 8 and 9 ft. Winds along the
California coast will subside on Sat and Sun, allowing seas in
this area to subside below 8 ft by Mon.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have caused seas to build
to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 128W. Seas will begin to
subside tonight and fall to below 8 ft by Wed evening.

$$
cam

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2016 09:15:43 UTC