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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241001
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 UTC Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N109W to 06N113W to 04N134W to 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N and 10N between
138W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 28N111W across the central Gulf of 
California to the Baja Peninsula at 26N111W. The front then 
continues as a weakening boundary to 21N112W. Large long period 
NW swell associated with the front will sweep east and southeast 
through Wednesday night, affecting waters primarily west of the 
Baja Peninsula with 8 to 16 ft seas, hazardous near-shore marine 
conditions and heavy dangerous surf along the coastline. The 
front will dissipate by this afternoon, with marine and surf 
conditions steadily improving during the next three days. 8 to 10
ft seas will persist west of 95W through Thursday. A surface 
trough induced by an upper-level trough extends from 14N110W to 
21N107W. The trough is weakening the ridge in the vicinity of the
mouth of the Gulf of California and Cabo Corrientes. The trough 
is expected to fill during the next couple of days. High pressure
centered in the Bay of Campeche is producing a tight pressure 
gradient over southern Mexico. The gradient is supporting strong 
N to NE winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The winds will become
moderate this afternoon as the high moves east and the gradient 
relaxes. Model guidance suggests a classic setup for gales in the
Gulf of California is in the making for Saturday and Saturday 
night. Models are in good agreement that winds draining 
southeastward through the Gulf of California during this time 
frame will reach 30 kt, but a local study suggests high pressure 
over the intermountain region of the United States will create a 
pressure gradient strong enough to generate near gale to gale 
force winds over most of the Gulf of California during this time 
frame. Winds during this event will probably reach gale force 
over the Gulf of California north of 29N. Winds will be fresh to 
strong over the Pacific waters to the west of Baja as gap winds 
bleed southwestward across the peninsula.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulfs of 
Papagayo, Fonseca and Panama Tuesday night through the end of the
week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail across most 
of the region through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 
3 and 5 ft until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to 
arriving NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N145W 
extends east-southeast to near 21N114W. The ridge is building 
eastward behind a weakening cold front heading SE across Baja 
California Sur. The ridge supports fresh to strong trade winds 
north of the ITCZ from 07N to 20N west of 120W. Large NW swell 
continue to spread SE across most of forecast waters with 8 ft 
seas encompassing almost the entire basin outside the Gulf of 
California and west of 100W. Another smaller but still 
significant set of NW swell that was generated behind a cold 
front that will remain NW of the discussion area will reach the 
northwest part of the area Wednesday morning. The area of 
reinforcing NW swell will then spread southeastward through 
Thursday night. Seas will peak around 16 ft near 30N140W on 
Wednesday night. Forecast models remain in general agreement in 
developing an area of low pressure over the western waters near 
10N137W on Thursday. As the low develops, a large accompanying 
area of fresh to strong winds will be possible from 12N to 26N W 
of 120W by Friday morning. The low is anticipated to begin 
weakening and turn toward the WNW on Friday and Friday night, The
low will continue to weaken, which will allow the area of fresh 
to strong winds to vanish by Sunday morning.

$$
cam

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Jan-2017 10:02:29 UTC