000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N94W to 12N108W to
low pres 1011 mb near 10.5N114W. The ITCZ extends from 10N115W 
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted N of 05N E of 86W and extends into the SW
Caribbean, and from 03.5N to 08.5N between 117W and 127W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 
to 13N between 87W and 103W, and from 02N to 05N between 127W and
136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge 
southeastward over the offshore waters of Baja California and to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure of 1009 mb is nearly
stationary just offshore of southern California, and extends a
trough northward along the entire coast of California. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low
pressure is supporting strong to gale-force N to N-NW winds
across the near and offshore waters of California, becoming fresh
across the far outer waters of Baja California Norte, to the NW
of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across the Baja waters, moderate
NW to N winds prevail, except locally fresh surrounding the 
coast at Cabo San Lucas. The winds offshore of California
continue to generate NW swell moving into the region. Seas 
across most of the Baja waters are 6 to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft 
N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are 
gentle to locally moderate from the SW N of 27N, where areas of
westerly gaps winds have developed overnight. Winds are from the
NW S of 27N. Seas along the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, highest at the 
entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the W to NW,
and become onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while seas 
remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure well NW of the local area 
will shift NE throughout the week. This will lead to the 
continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula 
waters through today, with small areas of locally fresh winds 
developing near the coasts during the afternoon and evening, 
becoming gentle to moderate winds Thu through Fri. Fresh NW winds
will persist across the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe Island
today. NW swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore 
waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting 
across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia through Thu
evening. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters 
through Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across 
the near and offshore waters between the Colombian coast and NW
Costa Rica, and extend into the SW Caribbean. This active 
weather is occurring about the monsoonal circulation becoming
seasonally  established across the region, and is producing 
frequent, strong gusty winds, and moderate to rough seas. Over 
the remainder Central America offshore waters N of 09N, winds 
remain light and variable and seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. 
Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are
mainly moderate from the S to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 07N, through 
Thu, which will feed into the scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms currently E of 90W. This active weather will shift
slowly westward through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds will
prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas in S swell. 
Otherwise, new southerly swell entering the region today will 
maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through 
Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern 
California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across 
the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are north of 28N between 120W and
125W, while gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail elsewhere N of
20N between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of
130W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell,
except to 10 ft along 30N and E of 125W. S of 20N, between the 
ridge and the ITCZ and W of 122W, moderate to locally fresh NE-E 
winds and 6-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, 
gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in
mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate 
speeds through Sun, as high pressure N of the area drifts 
northeastward. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected across the area of
trade winds through Sun. NW swell across the Baja California 
Norte waters will build through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft 
and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W today through Thu 
afternoon. The seas there will subside below 8 ft late Thu 
night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Stripling