| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252210
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 18.0N 127.9W at 2100 UTC,
moving northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is at 969 mb. The eye has filled in this afternoon and
cloud top temperatures are a little warmer indicating Georgette
has continued to weaken. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is present within 120 nm across the north and
45 nm across the south semicircle. Georgette will continue
weaken during the next few days as it moves northwest over
cooler water, eventually becoming a post tropical low on
Thursday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 20.6N 114.4W at 2100 UTC,
or about 285 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 5
kt. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 45 kt with gusts
to 55 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Widely scattered moderate convection is present within 45 nm
across the nw semicircle while scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 75 nm across the southeast semicircle. This
pattern of convection reflects the northwest shear continuing to
impact Frank. Frank will continue to move west-northwest and is
not expected to change much in intensity through Tuesday before
starting to weaken by Tuesday night then move northwest before
becoming a post-tropical remnant low Thursday. Large south swell
from Frank continues to impact the south and central coasts of
Baja California, generating rough and dangerous surf along the
local regional coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more
details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave N of 09 along 99W is triggering widely scattered
to scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to 15N
between 92W and 102W. This wave will shift to the west of the
Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore coastal
waters during the next 24-36 hours.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N74W to 09N86W to 11N108W
to 09N113W...where it transitions to ITCZ...continuing on to
07.5N118W to 08N123W. ITCZ begins anew from 13N130W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within
240 nm s and 360 nm n of trough between 90W and 102W, and within
150 nm n of trough between 105W and 111W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 180 nm n and 60 nm s of ITCZ
between 113W and 121W, and within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ
west of 133W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Tropical Storm Frank continues drifting slowly westward away from
Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will
slowly improve for these locales. Outer bands of moderate
convection along the southeast side of Frank have recently
shifted westward and away from the islands this afternoon.
Southerly swell associated with Frank that impacted the area
around Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf of California has
begun to fade today as the storm shifts westward. This swell
will continue to reach the Pacific coast of south and central
portions of Baja California, and mix with northerly swell in the
waters of Baja California Norte through mid week.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase
in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track northwest and weaken the
ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds
to diminish.

Northerly swell to 9 ft generated from strong winds offshore of
the California coast will continue to propagate into the waters
west of 120W and north of 22N into mid week, and mix with
southeast swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it
crosses west of 120W early Wednesday. 
$$
Stripling


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 25-Jul-2016 22:11:09 UTC