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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N124W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF LINE FROM 9N119W TO 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W OR W-NW 9 TO 
13 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N86W N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH 
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N98W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 
16N98W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE N 
PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER TROUGH N 
OF THE E PACIFIC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 127W MOVING W 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES IS ENCROACHING INTO THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 7N76W TO 8N93W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 9N96W THEN RESUMES 10N100W TO 11N111W THEN 
RESUMES 12N113W TO 11N120W THEN RESUMES 9N128W TO 9N14W THEN 
RESUMES 10N137W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 97W AND 108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 
102W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N132W TO 
17N137W. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
127W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH 
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N136W TO 13N135W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W AND FROM 
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED 
OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION N OF 22N E OF 120W. A SMALL 
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N113W 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 112W FROM 8N TO 
15N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. 

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N 
OF 20N W OF 115W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB 
HIGH NEAR 28N124W TO 20N119W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH 
STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE 
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING AS 
THE 8 FT SEAS SHIFT WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN 
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG OR AS LONG DURATION AS 
THE EVENT CURRENTLY UNDER WAY. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS 
TO STRONG BREEZE AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE BRIEFLY THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO 
EARLY THU MORNING WITH WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE.  

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Jul-2014 09:15:33 UTC